Daily Treasury Statement Charts Update: 11/3/11

An update of the daily treasury statement charts:

 

Total Operating Balance Line Vs S&P 500 Inverted

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The total operating balance of the US Treasury continued down yesterday (latest), declining by $26 billion. The supplementary financing account declined by $25 billion putting it at $50 billion. It is being unwound to the $5 billion level.

 

If markets are to remain this weak for a while, it is likely that the US Treasury will surprise itself by how much it ‘needs’ to withdraw from its coffers. This could bring the foxing ‘crack-up’ move  that precedes a more profound downward leg. I now present the total operating balance with some risk assets lagged ~40 trading days; the charts suggest that the ‘crack-up’ move could begin in around 14-15 trading days:

 

Total Operating Balance Vs Dow Inverted

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Total Operating Balance Vs S&P 500 Inverted

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Total Operating Balance Vs Russell 2000 Inverted

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Total Operating Balance Vs VIX Inverted

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Posted Mar 11, 2011