Daily Treasury Statement Charts Update: 17/3/11

An update of the daily treasury statement charts:

 

Total Operating Balance Vs S&P Inverted

Click to enlarge.

 

The total operating balance of the US Treasury was roughly flat yesterday (latest), increasing by around $2 billion. Although, the unwinding of the supplementary financing account continues to push the total operating balance lower, we shouldn’t be surprised to see increases to meet ‘emergency expenditures’.

 

As I have said previously: If markets are to remain this weak for a while, it is likely that the US Treasury will surprise itself by how much it ‘needs’ to withdraw from its coffers. This could bring the foxing ‘crack-up’ move  that precedes a more profound downward leg. I now present the total operating balance with some risk assets lagged ~40 trading days; the charts suggest that the ‘crack-up’ move could begin in around 11-12 trading days:

 

Total Operating Balance Vs Dow Inverted (LAGGED)

Click to enlarge.

Total Operating Balance Vs S&P 500 Inverted (LAGGED)

Click to enlarge.

Total Operating Balance Vs Russell 2000 Inverted (LAGGED)

Click to enlarge.

Total Operating Balance Vs VIX (LAGGED)

Click to enlarge.

See here for our collection of rare historical economic data.

Posted Mar 17, 2011