Daily Treasury Statement Charts Update: 17/3/11
An update of the daily treasury statement charts:
The total operating balance of the US Treasury was roughly flat yesterday (latest), increasing by around $2 billion. Although, the unwinding of the supplementary financing account continues to push the total operating balance lower, we shouldn’t be surprised to see increases to meet ‘emergency expenditures’.
As I have said previously: If markets are to remain this weak for a while, it is likely that the US Treasury will surprise itself by how much it ‘needs’ to withdraw from its coffers. This could bring the foxing ‘crack-up’ move that precedes a more profound downward leg. I now present the total operating balance with some risk assets lagged ~40 trading days; the charts suggest that the ‘crack-up’ move could begin in around 11-12 trading days:
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