Daily Treasury Statement Charts Update: 25/3/11 – The supplementary financing account has been unwound…

An update of the daily treasury statement charts:

 

Total Operating Balance Vs S&P 500 Inverted

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The total operating balance of the US Treasury fell by $25 billion yesterday (latest). The supplementary financing account fell to $5 billion; implying that the unwinding announced on Jan 27th is complete.

 

The validity of this indicator is being stretched and put to the test, only time will tell if the alchemistic correlation of the past will continue. If we suppose that it will, then it continues to suggest that we’ll see further downward movement over the next 7-8 days before a final crack-up move. [Using the thesis that net US Treasury withdrawals are bullish for risk assets and net accumulations are bearish for risk assets (on a lagged basis)] The charts of the lagged (40 days) total operating balance vs current risk assets are posted below.

 

 

Total Operating Balance Vs Dow Inverted (LAGGED)

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Total Operating Balance Vs S&P 500 Inverted (LAGGED)

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Total Operating Balance Vs Russell 2000 Inverted (LAGGED)

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Total Operating Balance Vs VIX (LAGGED)

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See here for our collection of rare historical economic data.

Posted Mar 26, 2011