Daily Treasury Statement Charts Update: 28/3/11

An update of the daily treasury statement charts:

 

Total Operating Balance Vs S&P 500

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The total operating balance of the US Treasury fell by roughly $10 billion on Friday (latest) and currently stands at around $65 billion. The supplementary financing account has been unwound to $5 billion, so the operating balance will probably stay around these levels until a new program is announced.

 

This indicator continues to suggest that we’ll see further downward movement over the next 5-6 days before a final crack-up move. [Using the thesis that net US Treasury withdrawals are bullish for risk assets and net accumulations are bearish for risk assets (on a lagged basis)] The charts of the lagged (40 days) total operating balance vs current risk assets are posted below.

 

Total Operating Balance Vs Dow Inverted (LAGGED)

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Total Operating Balance Vs S&P 500 Inverted (LAGGED)

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Total Operating Balance Vs Russell 2000 Inverted (LAGGED)

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Total Operating Balance Vs VIX (LAGGED)

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Posted Mar 29, 2011