Daily Treasury Statement Charts Update: 12/4/11
An update of the Daily Treasury Statement Charts for 12/4/11:
The total operating balance of the US Treasury was flat on Monday (latest). Virtually all ‘risk assets’ took a hit yesterday: equities, crude oil, precious metals, base metals and agricultural commodities fell in dollar terms. The notable exceptions were US Government bonds, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.
The lagged daily treasury statement charts (see below) continue to suggest that an up-trend might persist for three to four weeks. As always, I warn that this interpretation could be deemed to be alchemistic in nature. Even if past correlations continue for some time, we should note that this run might be a ‘final move’. For those just stumbling onto this site: The broad thesis is that net withdrawals are bullish for asset prices (on a lagged basis) and net accumulations of cash are bearish for asset prices (on a lagged basis). For a more detailed interpretation of these charts see here.
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