A difficulty with contrarian conjecturing is that one is never absolutely sure about whether one is thinking contrarily or not. One can only view the world with one’s own prejudices and belief structures in place, therefore the status of being a contrarian is never certain. So, when acting on contrarian conjecture, it makes sense to oppose trades where sentiment has reached wild extremes. When people seem to be absolutely in love with something, the contrarian can seek to oppose or avoid that thing. Conversely, when people seem to hate something, the contrarian can seek to embrace that thing.┬áThis brings me to cash; that is, physical Federal Reserve notes. I contend that the prospect of owning Federal Reserve notes in any size has become completely unpalatable for most investors and speculators. Therefore – as a self-professed contrarian – I contend that it could be highly beneficial to own a significant cash reserve in the coming months and years.

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