Felix Zulauf on the FT’s ‘Long View’ Program

Felix Zulauf was interviewed on the FT’s ‘Long View’ program early in the summer. He had some really interesting views on global monetary policies, emerging markets, commodities, currencies and the US Treasury bond. See below for the video and summary.

 

 

 

Summary:

 

[Bear in mind that the video was first published by the FT in May 2011.]

 

  • We are at the end of the first stage of the recovery. It is time for an intermission.
  • Emerging economies have tightened quite significantly.
  • Europe is sure on the road to the ‘double dip’.
  • Germany exports twice as much to the PIGS than it does to China.
  • China’s economy could continue to slow down into next year. They want a slower inflation rate due to the social problems that accompanies high inflation.
  • The dollar has been beaten down so much that there might be an upward correction.
  • Eventually the emerging market authorities will become more stimulative.
  • The commodities sector is the most exposed to the global economic slowdown – particular base metals. The commodities sector has enjoyed a large inflow of investment money.
  • In the long-term, for the next 5-6 years and longer, bonds look awful.
  • Bernanke is doing the opposite to what Paul Volker was doing.
  • We are working on a bottoming process for the US government bond market that is similar to the topping process of 1979-1984. The bond bear market may only start in earnest in two or three years.

See here for our collection of rare historical economic data.

Posted Aug 31, 2011
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