An update of the daily treasury statement charts:

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As I have discussed previously; in order for currencies to be sound and functioning, there must be a profit-motive in owning them. In our particular age of irredeemable fiat currencies, this gives rise to a strangely significant bond market.

 

The profit-motive involved with fiat currencies:

 

It is my contention that market prices will tend to imply that the entire stock of central banking liabilities (central bank notes & reserve balances) will only purchase a proportion of that central bank’s assets. This can been understood readily by a simple example: Suppose there existed a fiat currency consisting of ‘greshams-law notes’. Say, the entire stock of 100 notes was backed by 100 ounces of gold. Each note is some kind of claim on a proportion of the central bank’s assets (1 ounce of gold); so can we imagine that – in the market – people would trade more than one once of gold for 1 greshams-law note? I contend not. Rather, I say that market prices will reflect the fact that ‘greshams-law notes’ are ‘good for’ – at most – 1 ounce of gold.

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An update of the daily treasury statement charts:

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An update of the daily treasury statement charts:

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As contrarian investors, we should seek to oppose or avoid consensual modes of thinking (however dearly we hold them). So, in a market populated with increasing numbers of ‘bubble-watchers’, what’s a contrarian to do?

 

First of all, allow me to support my statement with some objective evidence. Please see the chart of the (financial) google searches for the word ‘bubble’ over the past seven years:

 

(Financial) Google Searches for 'Bubble'

Click to enlarge. Source: Google Insights

 

My personal contention is that this group of ‘bubble-watchers’ is already large. However, even if you have misgivings about this group’s size, it should be evident that it is growing (see chart). Can you blame them? After all, we’ve (potentially) had ‘bubbles’ in TMT, real estate, oil, the Dow, junk bonds etc. all in the past decade. Is it any wonder that people call every price-rise a ‘bubble’ these days? Furthermore, there has been an abundance of people who have missed these ‘bubbles’, and are desperate to catch/call the next one.

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An update of the daily treasury statement charts:

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Here are the updated charts of real interbank rates in Latin America & The Middle East:

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