Apologies for missing last week’s update and for the delay in publishing new content on the main page (we’ve been busy with our monthly newsletter). Here, I present an update of the weekly inflation vs deflation google insights chart for 15/8/11. It looks like we’re at the beginning of a spike in deflation fears (relative to inflation worries).

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We seem to have reached an intermediate-term extreme in revulsion for the Federal Reserve note. It seems to us that the status quo of the currency markets is highly dependent on the Federal Reserve accommodating the market’s perception of it. Here, I present the usual Federal Reserve balance sheet charts and briefly outline why we continue to anticipate a short-term rally in the dollar.

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For about four days the financial markets have been experiencing some kind of relief rally. Or, if the term ‘rally’ is too strong for you, then you might say that the price action hasn’t been completely disastrous over the past three or four days. Here, I present an update of the usual daily treasury statement charts. The lagged charts are suggesting that this ‘not completely disastrous price action’ could continue for another two weeks or so.

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It has been a harrowing week in the markets, with a 7%+ drop in the S&P 500 and greater declines elsewhere. Here, I present an update of the usual daily treasury statement charts. The lagged indicators are showing that we could see a relief rally begin at some point over the next few days.

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That was quick…

Aug 5, 2011

In a recent post, we jokingly noted that:

 

the guy on the front page of ft.com is only looking worried... We will know when the bottom is in because there will be guy with his head in his hands and a ticker screen behind him with a sea of red!

 

Well… excepting the part about the red screen (there are downward pointed charts instead), here it is:

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Well, it seems that market participants are starting to ‘decide’ that the fun-time is over. It has been a rather vicious week for ‘risk assets’, as is all too evident from the front page of ft.com

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An update of the weekly inflation vs deflation google insights chart for 31/7/11. The indicator show that inflation fears (relative to deflation worries) continue to subside from the exuberant peak of February of this year.

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