The enigma that is eccentricity can be unraveled by grasping of this single statement; that which you perceive is both a matter of the object of your perception (in this case; the eccentric person) and your apparatus of perception. Eccentricity, then, is as much a quirk of the popular mind as it is of a particular person. So with the assumption that you seek creativeness and intrigue — here’s how to think eccentrically, find your edge and risk little for lots.
It may be just me, but it seems like the majority of market participants are terrible at dealing with one of the rudiments of life as a human being; time. It is almost as if the herding man lives in constant contempt for his former self and dogmatic surety about his current convictions (whether they relate to past, present or even the future). If this hunch happens to be true, then it doesn’t take much to see the folly – for surprise surprise; as time passes the much-loved present conviction joins the realm of past regrets. So to thwart the arrogance of the gold bubble-top callers and the long-for-the-sake-of-being-long speculators here I outline why you, they and — hell — I might just buy that forthcoming parabolic move in gold.
Russell Napier’s Greatest Hits – Generational Cycles, Bear Market Bottoms & West Vs. East
Nov 20, 2011
Russell Napier (renown financial historian and consultant for CLSA) has articulated some fantastic insights on the generational cycle, bear market bottoms and currencies in recent years. So for this reason we decided to compile a ‘Russell Napier’s Greatest Hits’ video for you to enjoy. See below for the video and summary.
by Thomas Gresham |
Categories: Market History, Market Indicators, Market Philosophy, Monetary Trends, Other | Comments Off
Are Crowds Capable of Identifying Stupidity?
Nov 6, 2011
Herd opinion seems to be a chronically troublesome matter for the allocator of capital. Not only does the herd hold a deep suspicion for making money as such, but it seems that agreement is regarded as an imperative when it comes to considering the future. I might contend that the question; ‘How dare they consider that which all of us are unable/unwilling to consider?’ contains the primary sentiment behind the crowd’s contempt and condemnation… Supposing that this suspicion is true it might be considered quite important for us, as speculators, to overcome this. As ever, we think that it is contrary thought that reveals the key to prudence. Here I invite you to mull over the controversial question in the title; is the crowd capable of correctly identifying intelligence and stupidity? continue reading »
The Dollar Awakens from its Four Month Slumber…
Sep 10, 2011
After four months or so of trading in a tight range, it seems like the dollar is well and truly on the move! Of course, there is no guarantee that this will continue over the coming weeks and months, but nevertheless we think that it’s important to understand the ironic and paradoxical reasons for a strengthening dollar (against some of the other sinking currencies of the world). Rather than repeating what has been said here on greshams-law.com over the past few months, I thought I’d present a few articles that may be of interest now that the dollar is on the rise!
by Thomas Gresham |
Categories: Market Indicators, Market Philosophy, Monetary Trends, Other | 2 Comments
It would seem that words scarcely keep their original forms once they enter the realm of the herd. The crowd, drunk on the democratically affirmed power of consensual opinion, seeks to twist terminology so as to justify its prejudices with immediate and unthinking effect. ‘You’re a capitalist’, they say, ‘so surely you’re a proponent of the current failed system!’ ‘I’m a capitalist’, some proclaim, ‘and so I obviously believe in a centrally planned monetary system of course!’. Here I quote a telling passage from Gustav Le Bon’s book; The Crowd: A Study of the Popular Mind.
If we had to choose to indulge in just one form of pseudo financial mysticism, we would undoubtedly go for the view that financial assets tend to move in generational cycles. In short, we believe that nothing is more conducive to action than good old muscle memory. Here, I explain why the recent crash in the array of ‘risk assets’ is corroborating our hunch about the generational nature of trends in financial assets. Moreover, I consider one way in which widespread apathy towards speculation may come to pass.
